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| Thursday, 04/17/2025 7:07 PM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | Starter | Open | Latest | ||||
| Gm# | W-L-OTL PTS | Goalie | ML | O/U | ML | O/U | |
 TBL | 7 | 47-27-8, 102 pts. | JOHANSSON | +115 | 5.5o-25 | -115 | 6.5o-20 |
 NYR | 8 | 39-36-7, 85 pts. | SHESTERKIN | -135 | 5.5u+05 | -105 | 6.5e-10 |
Matchup Content Menu |
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NHL Simulation & Power Ratings |
Power Rating Projections |
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| Teams | Actual Line | Estimated Line | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Goalie | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge% | |
| TBL | 4.05 | JOHANSSON | -115 | 53.5% | -160 | 61.6% | TBL (+8.1%) |
| NYR | 3.01 | SHESTERKIN | -105 | 51.2% | +-160 | 38.4% | |
Game Simulation Results |
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| Average projected scores and game statistics. | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Line | Estimated Line | Over/Under | Projected Stats | ||||||||||
| Teams | Goalies | Score | ML | B.E. | ML | Win% | Edge | O/U | Est. | Edge | SOG | PP | AST |
| TBL | JOHANSSON | 2.45 | -115 | 53.5% | +105 | 48.7% | 6.5o-20 | 5.0 | 30 | 4-1 | 5 | ||
| NYR | SHESTERKIN | 2.53 | -105 | 51.2% | -105 | 51.3% | NYR (+0.1%) | 6.5e-10 | 5.0 | UN (+1.5) | 28 | 3-0 | 5 |
Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection |
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| Trends Favoring NY Rangers | |
|---|---|
 | Bet against Tampa Bay on the money line when they score 2 or less goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 1-23 (4%) with an average money line of -161. (-35.7 unit$, ROI=-92.6%) The average score of these games was Lightning 1.5, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet against Tampa Bay on the money line when they score 2 goals. Tampa Bay record during the 2025 season: 1-12 (8%) with an average money line of -151. (-16.2 unit$, ROI=-82.2%) The average score of these games was Lightning 2.0, Opponents 3.6. |
| Bet on NY Rangers on the money line when they allow 2 or less goals. NY Rangers record during the 2025 season: 30-4 (88%) with an average money line of -162. (+24.2 unit$, ROI=43.9%) The average score of these games was Rangers 3.6, Opponents 1.2. |
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| Trends Favoring Under | |
|---|---|
 | Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they score 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 21-3 (88%) with an average over/under of 6.2, money line=-112. (+18.1 unit$, ROI=67.2%) The average score of these games was Lightning 1.5, Opponents 3.2. |
| Bet under the total in Tampa Bay games when they score 2 goals. The Under's record since the 2024 season: 23-6 (79%) with an average over/under of 6.3, money line=-112. (+16.8 unit$, ROI=45.7%) The average score of these games was Lightning 2.0, Opponents 3.8. |
| Bet under the total in NY Rangers games when they allow 2 or less goals. The Under's record during the 2025 season: 25-7 (78%) with an average over/under of 6.1, money line=-108. (+17.8 unit$, ROI=48.2%) The average score of these games was Rangers 3.6, Opponents 1.2. |
Teams: The competing teams in the matchup.
Goalies: The starting goaltenders for each team.
Betting Lines
ML (Money Line): The odds for each team to win the game outright.
B.E. (Break-Even %): The implied probability of winning based on the money line.
Estimated ML: The projected money line based on power ratings and goaltender performance.
Win%: The projected win probability for each team based on simulations.
Edge%: The difference between the estimated and actual betting line, indicating potential value.
Game Simulation
Score: The average projected final score for each team based on simulations.
Over/Under (O/U): The projected total goals scored in the game.
Est. O/U: The estimated over/under based on simulations.
O/U Edge: The difference between the estimated and actual over/under total.
Projected Game Stats
SOG (Shots on Goal): The projected total number of shots on goal for each team.
PP (Power Play Goals): The projected number of power play goals scored by each team.
AST (Assists): The projected total assists for each team.
Trends & Insights
Trends Favoring Team: Historical betting trends that support one team based on past performance in similar matchups.
Trends Favoring Over/Under: Historical trends indicating whether games involving these teams tend to go over or under the total.