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Sunday, 04/20/2025 3:30 PM (ET) 
Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1
 Gm#RecordOpenLatestML1H
 ORL
 Orlando (7)
51142-41209206104
 BOS
 Boston (2)
51261-21-13.5-14-8

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Tip SheetSimulation & Ratings🔒Betting Systems🔒Team Trends🔒Team StatsPlayers Stats & InjuriesSchedule & ResultsHead-to-Head🔒Coaches🔒

NBA Simulation & Power Ratings

This page features detailed power rating line projections alongside StatSharp's advanced game simulations, each offering precise projected scores and game statistics, estimated fair market lines, positive expected value percentages, and projected hit rates against both the side and total lines. Both sections clearly identify potential betting advantages by highlighting significant value edges when they occur. Use this comprehensive analysis to confidently identify the strongest wagering opportunities available.

Power Rating Projections

Compare team strength with power ratings based on recent results versus expectations. Identify potential advantages where ratings differ from the actual line.

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 Power Rating
TeamsRatingEstimateActualEdge
 ORL Orlando119 ORL (+11)
 BOS Boston120-3-14

Game Simulation Results

This table shows projected scores and stats from simulations, including shooting, free throws, and rebounding. Edges highlight potential advantages versus the current line.

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Average projected scores and game statistics.
 Scores, EdgesShooting   3pt ShootingFree ThrowsRebounding 
TeamsScoreEdgeH1ScoreEdge3FGM-APct.3FGM-APct.FTM-APct.Tot.OFFTO
 ORL Orlando104ORL (+5)Ov (+12)53ORL (+4)Ov (+5.5)39-9043.8%11-3532.2%14-1879.4%521211
 BOS Boston114 57 41-8945.9%18-4837.0%14-1881.0%561313

Simulation Line Covers

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The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
In 1000 simulated games, Orlando covered the spread 599 times, while Boston covered the spread 372 times.
Edge against the spread=Orlando.
In 1000 simulated games, 756 games went over the total, while 226 games went under the total.
Edge against the total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Boston won the game straight up 681 times, while Orlando won 301 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Orlando covered the first half line 619 times, while Boston covered the first half line 344 times.
Edge against the first half line=Orlando.
In 1000 simulated games, 651 games went over the first half total, while 307 games went under the first half total.
Edge against the first half total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, Boston covered the 4 point teaser line 464 times, and failed to cover 514 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, Orlando covered the 4 point teaser line 680 times, and failed to cover 305 times.
No Edge.
In 1000 simulated games, 820 games went over the 4 point teaser total, while 162 failed to go over.
Edge against the 4 point teaser total=Over.
In 1000 simulated games, 290 games went under the 4 point teaser total, while 682 failed to go under.
No Edge.

Potential Trends Based On Simulator Projection

Trends Favoring Orlando.
Bet on Orlando on the money line when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game.
Orlando record during the 2025 season: 16-5 (76%) with an average money line of -229. (+15.4 unit$, ROI=32.0%)
The average score of these games was Magic 110.0, Opponents 103.6.
Trends Favoring Boston.
Bet on Boston on the 1st half line when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game.
Boston record on the 1st half line since the 2024 season: 28-7 (80%) with an average 1st half line of -6.0. (+20.3 unit$, ROI=52.7%)
The average 1st half score of these games was Celtics 63.2, Opponents 52.5.
Trends Favoring Under.
Bet under the 1st half total in Boston away or neutral games when they allow 103 to 108 points in a game.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 10-0 (100%) with an average 1st half over/under of 115.0. (+10.0 unit$, ROI=82.6%)
The average score of these games was Celtics 58.6, Opponents 49.0.
Bet under the 1st half total in Boston away or neutral games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game.
The 1st half Under's record during the 2025 season: 11-1 (92%) with an average 1st half over/under of 114.0. (+9.9 unit$, ROI=75.0%)
The average score of these games was Celtics 54.8, Opponents 51.8.
Glossary of Terms

Teams: The names and logos of the basketball teams being compared in the simulation.

Rating: The power rating assigned to the team, indicating its overall strength based on various factors like performance, statistics, and other metrics.

Score: The average projected final score for each team based on the simulation.

Estimate: The estimated point spread or line based on the power rating comparison between the two teams.

Edge: Indicates a potential betting advantage if the estimated score or line differs significantly from the actual betting line.

H1Score: The average projected score for each team at the end of the first half.

3FGM-A: The average number of three-point field goals made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (3pt Shooting): The average shooting percentage for three-point field goals.

FTM-A: The average number of free throws made and attempted by the team.

Pct. (Free Throws): The average free throw shooting percentage.

Tot. (Rebounding): The average total number of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) secured by the team.

OFF (Rebounding): The average number of offensive rebounds secured by the team.

TO: The average number of turnovers committed by the team.